World Official Gold Holdings

RBI keeps policy rates unchanged, SLR cut to 23%

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its April-June quarter monetary policy on Tuesday left the key policy rates unchanged. However, it has cut the statuitory liquidity ratio (SLR) to 23% from 24% earlier. This policy action was by and large in-line with CNBC-TV18 poll. Now, the repo rate or the rate at which banks borrow from RBI remained at 8% while the reverse repo rate at which, the banks lend to RBI at 7%.

SLR is the percentage of total deposits that lenders need to invest in the government bonds. The reduction is aimed at ensuring free flow of credit growth through enough liquidity in the system.

Cash Reserve Ratio or CRR is the portion of total deposits that banks are required to keep with the central bank also remained unchanged.

Meanwhile, the central bank raised the baseline projection of WPI based inflation to 7% for March, 2013 as against the earlier projection of 6.50%.

"The deficient and uneven monsoon performance so far will have an adverse impact on food inflation. Notwithstanding some moderation, international crude oil prices remain elevated. This, coupled with the pass-through of rupee depreciation to import prices, continues to put upward pressure on domestic fuel price inflation," RBI said in the first quarter review of the credit policy 2012-13.

Interestingly, India is ranked lowest in rating among all BRIC countries. In its macroeconomic policy, RBI alerted the government of the need to revive investment climate. This can be done through policy actions like removal of bottlenecks in infrastructure sector, liberal foreign direct investment norms and so on.

After a gap of nearly three years, RBI had cut policy rates in annual monetary policy announced on April 17 by 50 bps.

NF Fut 31-July

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Xpert Nifty
31-July

--:: Live Market Update :::--

NF Fut open near 5232 just above our support level of 5228.
Today RBI will announce the next policy near 11:00 AM. Be careful.

Just to remind you that few days back we have updates a source report of Bankers Poll for today RBI policy. If you dont remember then CLICK HERE to review it again.

No heavy change in RBI policy is expected today, Still lets wait & watch.

Upper Side Resistance 5266-5312
Lower Side support 5205-5171

Regards,
Team XN

NF Fut 30-July

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Xpert Nifty
30-July

Market is maintain its Volatility but giving some expected move of 20~30 points.
However still some short swings is seen in the Nifty which is good for intraday + positional trader.

Intraday Resistance 5170-5205-5228
Lower Side support 5092-30

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

RBI unlikely to cut rates, watch out for GDP forecast: Poll

The RBI Governor, Subbarao has repeated often enough that he is uncomfortable with consumer prices rising 10% and whole sale price inflation at over 7%. The market is now convinced RBI is out to keep interest rates high and money expensive till prices fall. Hence, 90% of the respondents in the CNBC-TV18 poll said that they don’t expect RBI to cut interest rates in its policy next Tuesday.

Again, an overwhelming 90% said no CRR cuts either but the market will watch for more than just rate action. It will watch for the RBI’s GDP forecast. The prevailing forecast given in the April policy is 7.3%. After the 5.3% shocker for the Q4 of last year GDP forecast and confidence have fallen thick and fast.

Of the total, 90% respondents said, RBI will lower its forecast. Of these one half said GDP forecast will be lowered to between 6.6% and 7.2%. The other half said, it will be lowered to between 6% and 6.5%. 10% said RBI will retain it at 7.3% but warned it will lower the number in October after taking stock of the monsoons.

When asked about their own forecast, 75% expect GDP to come in at 6-6.5%. 15% see it above 6.5% and 10% actually said GDP will come in below 6% that is five point something. If that happens, it will be for the first time since 2002.

So, why won’t the RBI cut rates despite such dismal growth forecasts?

 The answer lies in the inflation forecasts.

While a majority of 55% said the RBI will leave the March end inflation forecast unchanged at 6.5%, 45% said RBI will raise the forecast. Of this 25% said the inflation forecast will be upped to 6.5-7% and other 20% said it will be raise above 7%.

Respondents themselves were more skeptical of inflation falling. 50% saw March end inflation above 7%, 40% saw it between 6.5% and 7% and just 10% saw it at 6.5% or lower.

Inline with the lower growth forecasts 40% said RBI will lower the bank loan growth forecast from the current 17%. 60% said RBI won’t change these numbers till the October policy.

Finally, the market will watch out for RBIs stance, its guidance. 60% said the guidance will not be different from the June policy where RBI warned of inflation and explained the unimportance of interest rates to the current slowdown. 40% said no, the RBI will soften its stance and guide that it will stand ready to help.


Samiran Chakrabarty, Chief Economist, Standard Chartered says, “I would like to believe that their guidance is what they will follow and if I follow their guidance then it looks to me that there should not be any rate cut on Tuesday. It seems that RBI has taken a stance that interest rate is not the reason why growth is slowing down so interest rate cut is also not going to revive growth. At the same time it might reignite the fears of inflation.

We have taken a call that this is going to be a pretty long halt for the Central Bank where if they really want to get into a situation where inflation comes down to their comfort level of 5-6% then they will have to be patient, you cannot possibly flip-flop on policy every three months changing your target, changing your assumptions.”

Manish Wadhawan, HSBC, however, does not seem to agree. According to him, “I would be in the minority camp and I would say given the push which is being talked about by the government and the way the things are panning out I expect that RBI might surprise with a 25 basis point cut this time.

If you see the market levels also, we have already seen the market started factoring in some kind of policy easing in terms of if you see the CD rates three months back and today where we are, they are down by something by 50-75 basis point. The government of India bond yields 10 year paper is down by something like 30-40 basis points from the peak it achieved in January-February.

The markets already to some extent factoring in that and I am also putting in one more factor which is the doubt situation which is still uncertain. I think putting all the pieces together there is a probability of a rate cut and RBI might surprise in that.”

European Unemployment Rate Rises to Highest in Almost 15 Years

Euro-region unemployment rose to the highest in almost 15 years and manufacturing contracted for a ninth month, adding to signs the economy continues to weaken.

The jobless rate in the 17-nation euro area increased to 10.9 percent in March from 10.8 percent in February, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since April 1997, when the rate reached a record high, according to Bloomberg News data going back to 1990. A manufacturing gauge in the region fell to 45.9 in April from 47.7 in March, Markit Economics said.


The European Central Bank will probably keep its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 1 percent tomorrow, according to all 58 economists in a Bloomberg survey. ECB President Mario Draghi said on April 25 that European leaders need to create a “growth compact” as spending cuts across the region damp activity and prompt a backlash among citizens.
The euro-area jobless rate in March matched the median forecast of 31 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The number of people out of work in the region rose by 169,000 from February to 17.4 million.

In the 27-nation European Union, the unemployment rate was 10.2 percent in March, unchanged from the previous month and up from 9.4 percent in March 2011.

Spain had the region’s highest unemployment rate in March, at 24.1 percent, with Greece at 21.7 percent, the report showed. The lowest rates were in Austria and the Netherlands, at 4 percent and 5 percent respectively.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fergal O’Brien in London at fobrien@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net  

**  Source ::- Bloomberg.net

**  Direct Link ::- Click Here

 

NF Fut 27-July

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Xpert Nifty
27-July

As expected Nifty gave free fall yesterday. How ever it looks like NF will take support of 5030.
Upside it can move till 5132-5160-5181
If NF fut close or sustain above 5181 then the +ve rally will continue till 5270-5330.

We are expecting a huge volatility in AUG series futures followed by 2 days holiday on 15-Aug & 20-Aug.

Support :- 5030-4962
Resistance :- 5132-60-81

Web:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 26-July

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Xpert Nifty
26-July

--::: Thursday :::--

Looking at current trading style, today cant expect huge volatility.
Technically trend is -ve or down BUT 5070 is the support. If NF Fut July Holds this level then we may see some short covering till 5163.

Just watch carefully 5070-5035, at current level this are the strong support.
Keeping Sl 5300 to your long.

**Paid client position
1# Nifty Fut short open from 5260, Partial Booked 5160
2# Bank Nifty short open from 10,600, Partial Booked 10,300
3# SBIN short open from 2190, Partial Booked 2115

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 25-July

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25-July

Yesterday we have seen a narrow range bound day, But just look at the volume.
Volume is equal to regular day, which indicates some serious move could be seen in few days.

all our paid client holding short position from 5260 (19-July)
Over All trend is -ve or down. every rise could be utilize to clear long position and enter fresh short position.

Just watch carefully 5090-5035, at current level this are the strong support.
Keeping Sl 5300 to your long.

**Paid client position
1# Nifty Fut short open from 5260, Partial Booked 5160
2# Bank Nifty short open from 10,600, Partial Booked 10,300
3# SBIN short open from 2190, Partial Booked 2115

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 24-July

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Xpert Nifty
24-July

As expected market is coming down side. all our paid client holding short position from 5260 (19-July)
Over All trend is -ve or down. every rise could be utilize to clear long position and enter fresh short position.

Just watch carefully 5090-5035, at current level this are the strong support.

**Paid client position
1# Nifty Fut short open from 5260, Partial Booked 5160
2# Bank Nifty short open from 10,600, Partial Booked 10,300
3# SBIN short open from 2190, Partial Booked 2115

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

Nf Fut 20-July

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Xpert Nifty
20-July

--::: Friday :::--

**Consolidation is at its edge. anytime breakout is expected now its time to come for some new trend to come.
**Once in a 6 to 9 months consolidation could be seen in the market, who ever consolidation is time to add/remove stock from your portfolio.
**Evert expert always know when to enter in the market and when to exit.
**Some active will be seen soon.

Get ready for making trades new trend is likely to come within 3~4 days (i.e. till 25-July)
Intraday is now a good way to trade position trading req. lots of knowledge.

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 18-July

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Xpert Nifty
18-July

NF Fut has break 5200 level 2 time but some serprise buying is seen still so sign of strong trend.
Below 5200 NF Fut can come till 5105-4995

For intraday 5177 is the support watch it closely.

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 17-July

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Xpert Nifty
17-July

5200 Could be the next lower range of this consolidation.
technically market is in narrow range consolidation.
Today if NF Fut sustain below 5200 and close then we may see 5000 soon.  Traders are avoiding trading hence the result low volume.

WeB:- www.Xpertnifty.in

NF Fut 16-July

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Xpert Nifty
16-July

Still no sign of clear trend Friday also NF traded in narrow range and also not given sign of breaout.
Today can give breakout.

Upper Side Breakout 5350
Lower Side Breakout 5220

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 13-July

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Xpert Nifty
13-July

Best day for the stock market trader is FRIDAY.
Today we can hope that the consolidation of last 10 days, can end today and can give a successive breakout.

Upper Side Breakout 5350
Lower Side Breakout 5220

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 12-July

Xpert Nifty
12-July

CONSOLIDATION
Still Nf Fut is in range bout zone there is no clear trend. IF NF fut sustain below 5250 and close below then we may see some panic. 
Buying can see near 5250 level.

NF Fut 10-July

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Xpert Nifty
10-July

After Taking resistance at 5352 NF fut now expected to touch 5230-5210
Still consolidation phase is on. And Nifty will remain in this phase unless & until there will not be a clear direction on GAAR.

Resistance:- 5310-5330-5352
Support:- 5230-5210

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 09-July

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Xpert Nifty
09-July

CONSOLIDATION > THIS IS THE SIGN OF SOME MAJOR MOVES.
We Have seen same consolidation in June end too, again we are into consolidation from last 5 days.

Trend will remain +ve as long as NF sustain above 5302-5290.

**OPEN POSITION**
WE HOLD LONG NIFTY 5240
WE HOLD LONG BANK NIFTY 10,165
WE HOLD LONG SBIN FUTURE 2108

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 06-July

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Xpert Nifty
06-July

Since so many days we are saying about 5340-5352.
Yesterday NF Fut try to cross but fail to sustain. Is this the end of bull market????

Well Today is FRIDAY the trend decider day. Cross above 5352 and if NF sustain then you may see 5402 in few days only.

**OPEN POSITION**
WE HOLD LONG NIFTY 5240 LTP 5339 PROFIT RS. 9,900
WE HOLD LONG BANK NIFTY 10,165 CMP 10,630 PROFIT RS. 46,500
WE HOLD LONG SBIN FUTURE 2108 LTP 2221 PROFIT RS. 14,125
TOTAL PROFIT RS. 70,525

SPECIAL OFFER PAY 10,000 FEES AND GET NIFTY POSITIONAL TIPS + BANK NIFTY POSITIONAL TIPS + SBIN POSITIONAL TIPS
**OFFER VALID TILL 06-JULY ONLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 05-July

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Xpert Nifty
05-July

Consolidation is the sign that the move is suppose to come it can in either direction.
We are expecting as long as 5210 hold for the TG of 5400-5450.

**All 3 OF OUR POSITION GIVEN TO PAID CLIENT GIVEN HUGE MONEY IN JUST 3 DAYS.
CALL #1 - BUY NF FUT 5240 (29-JUNE)
                        STILL HOLDING LONG POSITION  OUR TRAILING SL XX,XXX
CALL #2 - BUY BANK NIFTY FUTURE 10,165 OUR TG 10,465 ACHIEVED
                   STILL HOLDING LONG POSITION  OUR TRAILING SL XX,XXX
CALL #3 - BUY SBIN FUTURE 2108 (29-JUNE) OUR TG 2183 ACHIEVED
                   STILL HOLDING LONG POSITION  OUR TRAILING SL XXXX

SPECIAL OFFER PAY 10,000 FEES AND GET NIFTY POSITIONAL TIPS + BANK NIFTY POSITIONAL TIPS + SBIN POSITIONAL TIPS
**Offer Valid till 06-July

Regards,
Team Xpert Nifty
www.XpertNifty.in
M:- 08401425334

NF Fut 04 - July

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Xpert Nifty
04-July

Slow and steady NF manages to move higher & higher. We are waiting for the trend clearance at 5352.
Stay above this level and if it manages to sustain they we may see again a new rally which will take NF till 5402(which is again a strong resistance)

**All 3 OF OUR POSITION GIVEN TO PAID CLIENT GIVEN HUGE MONEY IN JUST 3 DAYS.
CALL #1 - BUY NF FUT 5240 (29-JUNE)
CALL #2 - BUY BANK NIFTY FUTURE 10,165 OUR TG 10,465 ACHIEVED
                   STILL HOLDING LONG POSITION  OUR TRAILING SL XX,XXX
CALL #3 - BUY SBIN FUTURE 2108 (29-JUNE) OUR TG 2183 ACHIEVED
                   STILL HOLDING LONG POSITION  OUR TRAILING SL XXXX

SPECIAL OFFER PAY 10,000 FEES AND GET NIFTY POSITIONAL TIPS + BANK NIFTY POSITIONAL TIPS + SBIN POSITIONAL TIPS
**Offer Valid till 06-July

Regards,
Team Xpert Nifty
www.XpertNifty.in
M:- 08401425334

NF Fut 03-July

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Xpert Nifty
03-July

Nifty if now +ve 5360 is the key level to watch for now.
IF NF sustain above this level the we can see fresh buying will come. In This case TG will be 5402

**ALL OUR PAID CLIENT IS HOLDING LONG NF FUT FROM 5240, OUR TRAILING SL XXXX

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in

NF Fut 02-July

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Xpert Nifty
02-July

As predicted on 27-June( Thursday ) that we will se breakout of Nifty in 2 days Thursday or Friday which will decide the trend.
And hence the result on Friday we have seen a good Gap opening and +ve breakout & NF achieved our most awaited TG 5300.

Now the trend is +ve intraday you may see some consolidation or some profit booking too.
every decline and at every major support we recommend to add long positions.

**ALL OUR PAID CLIENT HOLD THERE LONG NF FROM 5240-5243 TG 5280 DONE NEXT TG XXXX

Trend :- +ve OR UP
Res.   :- 5352-5378
Sup.   :- 5220-5200

WeB:- www.XpertNifty.in