October-2013 Future Expiry day || Nifty Fut 31-Oct

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Proof of Techinical Market Movemet || Nifty Fut 30-Oct-2013

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RBI hikes repo rate, cuts MSF by 25 bps each; CRR unchanged

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan raised repo rate by 25 bps to 7.25 percent in the second quarter monetary policy review. The apex bank also rolled back MSF rate by 25 bps to 8.75 percent thus restoring "normalcy" and left CRR unchanged at 4 percent.

The RBI also increased the liquidity provided through term repos of 7-day and 14-day tenor from 0.25 percent of NDTL of the banking system to 0.5 percent with immediate effect.

Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 6.75 percent and the Bank Rate stands reduced to 8.75 percent with immediate effect.

With these changes, the MSF rate and the Bank Rate are recalibrated to 100 basis points above the repo rate. Repo rate is the effective policy rate that decides lending rates in the economy.

Consensus on the street pointed to a 25 bps rate hike to 7.75 percent and rolling back of emergency measures applied to tame the rupee.

In his previous monetary policy review, announced weeks after assuming office as RBI governor, Rajan stunned market by raising repo rates

The RBI has been struggling for a year now to bring down inflation which has remained stubbornly high despite all possible measures, which led to slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, annual food inflation touched its highest point since mid-2010 to 18.4 percent in September.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan raised repo rate by 25 bps to 7.25 percent in the second quarter monetary policy review. The apex bank also rolled back MSF rate by 25 bps to 8.75 percent thus restoring "normalcy" and left CRR unchanged at 4 percent. The RBI also increased the liquidity provided through term repos of 7-day and 14-day tenor from 0.25 percent of NDTL of the banking system to 0.5 percent with immediate effect. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 6.75 percent and the Bank Rate stands reduced to 8.75 percent with immediate effect. With these changes, the MSF rate and the Bank Rate are recalibrated to 100 basis points above the repo rate. Repo rate is the effective policy rate that decides lending rates in the economy. Consensus on the street pointed to a 25 bps rate hike to 7.75 percent and rolling back of emergency measures applied to tame the rupee. In his previous monetary policy review, announced weeks after assuming office as RBI governor, Rajan stunned market by raising repo rates The RBI has been struggling for a year now to bring down inflation which has remained stubbornly high despite all possible measures, which led to slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, annual food inflation touched its highest point since mid-2010 to 18.4 percent in September.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/rbi-hikes-repo-rate-cuts-msf-by-25-bps-each-crr-unchanged_978635.html?topnews=1&utm_source=ref_article

Just before RBI Policy

RBI Macroeconomic Review: FY14 growth forecast cut to 4.8% Vs 5.7%

The Reserve Bank of India's Macroeconomic Survey released on Monday lowered FY14 growth forecast to 4.8 percent from 5.7 percent, thus fuelling street fears that governor Raghuram Rajan will resort to a hawkish stance while announcing the monetary policy on Tuesday.

 

The report also lowered FY15 growth forecast to 5.8 percent from 6.5 percent and warned that both wholesale and consumer price inflation (WPI & CPI) are likely to stay above comfort level in the second half of this fiscal.

While it raised FY14 average WPI forecast to 6 percent from 5.3 percent, it lowered FY15 WPI forecast to 5.5 percent to 5.7 percent.

 

The central bank is widely expected to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday to 7.75 percent to fight inflation even as it continues to unwind its rupee defense steps, a Reuters poll showed.

 

India's headline wholesale price index inflation rose to a seven-month high 6.46 percent in September, driven by food prices such as a 322 percent jump in the cost of onions, while consumer inflation quickened to 9.84 percent. In its report, the RBI noted that a drop in food inflation is required to bring down broader consumer price inflation.

 

"However, pending sufficient supply responses, it is important that monetary policy keeps a tight leash to prevent relative price shocks in the current year from getting generalised," it said.

(With inputs from agencies)

Nifty Fut 29-Oct-2013 || Ahead of RBI Policy

Xpert Nifty

29-Oct

Tuesday 29-Oct, RBI Governor today going to announce policy, which is very big event for market.

is simple words if i expect impact then .25 BPS increase in CRR will be good for market and we may see,

buying pressure in 2nd half of the day.

Anything less or more then CRR could lead to massive fall.

Technically NF Fut closing below 6050 will turn into -ve or down side.
 

 

RBI Macroeconomic Review: FY14 growth forecast cut to 4.8% Vs 5.7%

The Reserve Bank of India's Macroeconomic Survey released on Monday lowered FY14 growth forecast to 4.8 percent from 5.7 percent, thus fuelling street fears that governor Raghuram Rajan will resort to a hawkish stance while announcing the monetary policy on Tuesday.

The report also lowered FY15 growth forecast to 5.8 percent from 6.5 percent and warned that both wholesale and consumer price inflation (WPI & CPI) are likely to stay above comfort level in the second half of this fiscal. While it raised FY14 average WPI forecast to 6 percent from 5.3 percent, it lowered FY15 WPI forecast to 5.5 percent to 5.7 percent.

The central bank is widely expected to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday to 7.75 percent to fight inflation even as it continues to unwind its rupee defense steps, a Reuters poll showed.

India's headline wholesale price index inflation rose to a seven-month high 6.46 percent in September, driven by food prices such as a 322 percent jump in the cost of onions, while consumer inflation quickened to 9.84 percent.

In its report, the RBI noted that a drop in food inflation is required to bring down broader consumer price inflation.

"However, pending sufficient supply responses, it is important that monetary policy keeps a tight leash to prevent relative price shocks in the current year from getting generalised," it said.

(With inputs from agencies)

Nifty Fut 28-Oct

Xpert Nifty

28-Oct-2013

We have seen consolidation, some of the good moves does not mean consolidation has come to and end.

NF Fut heading towards all time high and its very much common and natural that we see some sharp selling.

Every dip could be utilize to make fresh buy position as long as nf fut trading above 6050.

Anytime below 6050 we will see another 150-250 pts fall. be cautious and dont be overconfidence and don't trade w/o SL.

Nifty Fut 24-Oct

 

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Nifty Fut 22-Oct

Xpert Nifty
22-Oct

Above we have posted chart to find our the clear trend view for short team for traders.
As you can see that at every dip nf fut finding support and its making new high of the swing.

yesterday nf fut closed near strong resistance 6237.
we may see some consolidation at this level and also we can see some profit booking too.

INRUSD is consolidating near 60.5-61 range. and hence any fall here will directly reflect in stock market.

its time to book some of your gains and sit idol till next clear entry.

—————————————-

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TCS || Education Service

Xpert Nifty

21-Oct

TCS Fut after a very long run from 1300 level in June-July this stock has made high around 2250.

This stock is now turned -ve and it can go down till 2054-2034 in immediate run.

**INFORMATION SHARED ONLY FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE. 

**TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK

Easy Fed outlook, China growth send shares to five-year high, dollar to eight-month low

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) - Expectations the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus in place for longer following the confidence-sapping U.S. fiscal impasse pushed world shares to a five-year high and the dollar to an eight-month low on Friday.

An acceleration in China's giant economy provided a further boost for stock markets, as well as growth-linked commodities such as oil and copper, as the prospect of an extended spell of super-easy money and improving growth buoyed investors. (.N)

European shares (.FTEU3) were up 0.3 percent around midday, with broadly even gains for most of the region's major bourses leaving them on course for a weekly gain of 1.75 percent and hovering at their highest since mid-2008.

That followed solid gains across most of Asia overnight.

Wall Street was expected to tick up 0.1-0.2 percent after Thursday's record close for the S&P 500 (.SPX).

As the U.S. debt drama faded, speculation grew over whether the likely hit to growth from the wrangling would see the Federal Reserve further delay cutting back its stimulus - supporting riskier assets but weighing on the dollar.

"The debate on the timing of QE tapering by the Fed is quickly moving to whether it will be Q1 2014 or Q2," said Derek Halpenny, European head of global markets research for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

"The dollar has been left vulnerable by this uncertainty especially in circumstances of growth stabilizing in China."

Traders were continuing to sell the greenback versus a broad basket of currencies from both advanced and emerging economies.

The knock-on effect for Europe was a stronger euro and pound. The euro zone's shared currency hit an 8-1/2 month high of $1.3694 as its recent strong run following signs of a pick-up in the bloc continued.

"The euro itself has several factors that are certainly beneficial," said Vasileios Gkionakis, global head of FX Strategy for UniCredit. "The recovery is on track and next week we have the new PMI figures which should support that view."

"I think we are also seeing central banks looking to diversify some of their dollar holdings into euros and on top of that at the last ECB press conference Mario Draghi didn't show any real concern about the strength of the euro."

CHINA BULLS SHOP

Investors were also relieved by data showing China's economy grew 7.8 percent in the third quarter, its fastest pace this year and in line with expectations, as firmer foreign and domestic demand lifted factory production and retail sales.

China's CSI300 index <.csi300> climbed 0.7 percent, while Australian shares (.AXJO) jumped to their highest level since June 2008. Australian exports are closely linked to China's economic fortunes.

"The Q3 GDP figure is in line with market expectations but the uncertainty is whether the current recovery is sustainable," said Shen Jianguang, chief China economist with Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong.

Though there was broad U.S. relief investors were retaining some caution following Wednesday's last-minute debt deal.

While it pulled the world's largest economy back from the brink of an historic default, it only funds the government until January 15 and raises the borrowing limit through to February 7, meaning another political showdown could be on cards.

Markets are also bracing for a deluge of delayed U.S. economic data over the next week.
A simple estimate suggested the direct and indirect impact of this month's shutdown would weigh on annualized fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth by 0.4 percentage point, analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients.

German Bunds were on course for a steady end to a week of hefty gains, while in the euro zone periphery only Portugal was in the red along with its main share market <.psi20> as its debt concerns continued.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries were trading with a yield of 2.5504 percent ahead of the start of U.S. trading, a two-week low. Yields move inversely to prices.

In commodity markets, China's stronger growth helped copper climb 0.6 percent to 7,273 a tonne and Brent oil futures to hold above $109 a barrel after a build-up of crude stocks in the United States pushed oil prices down overnight.

Meanwhile, gold took a breather after rallying almost 3 percent overnight - its biggest one-day rise in a month - as the dollar weakened. It was steady at about $1,316 an ounce and not far off a more-than one-week high reached on Thursday.

(Editing by Catherine Evans)

Nfty Fut 15-Oct-2013

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Maruti Fut || Free Edication

Xpert Nifty
14-Oct 

Maruti Fut || Free Edication 
Maruti Fut looks strong above 1474 and above it may move up till 1498. 

**INFORMATION SHARED ONLY FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE.
**TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK

Nifty Fut 14-Oct

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Asian stocks rally to 3-week highs on hopes U.S. avoids default

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian stocks jumped to three-week highs on Friday as investors took a chance and cheered perceived progress in Washington to avert a possible default, even though questions remained over whether a deal could be struck.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> rose 1.3 percent, reaching highs not seen since September 19. Tokyo's Nikkei (NIK:^9452) was also 1.3 percent higher.

Gains were seen across the region's emerging markets, with Indonesian shares (.JKSE) rising 0.6 percent and the Philippines (.PSI) up 0.9 percent. MSCI's broad emerging benchmark equity index (.MSCIEF) put on 0.8 percent.

The rally in Asia came after U.S. stocks (.SPX) jumped over 2 percent in their biggest one-day gain since January 2 as investors became more confident that squabbling U.S. politicians would at the very least avert a possible U.S. debt default next week.

"The situation is fluid but it seems like progress is being made on averting the worst case scenario. But a short-term solution should be met with short-term enthusiasm," analysts at Nomura wrote in a client note.

Republican lawmakers, who have not passed budget funding, on Thursday offered a plan that would extend the U.S. government's borrowing authority for several weeks, staving off a default that could come as soon as October 17.

While no deal emerged from a meeting at the White House, the two sides said they would continue to talk.

Markets were briefly unsettled after the New York Times reported President Barack Obama had rejected the plan, but Republican Paul Ryan later said Obama had neither accepted or rejected the proposal.

The conflicting news briefly saw U.S. stock index futures fall 0.5 percent, trimming some of Thursday's 2 percent rally. They have since completely recovered to be up 0.1 percent.

"We are watching this very closely like everyone else. Some people have been going into cash. I wish we were all focusing on matters of economics and earnings, but we are unfortunately trading on this soap opera," said Michael Cuggino, president and portfolio manager at Permanent Portfolio Funds.
YEN PRESSURED

The current 'risk-on' environment weighed on the safe-haven yen. Both the dollar and euro rose to 1-1/2 week highs of 98.54 yen 133.35 respectively, showing gains of 0.3-0.4 percent on the day.
The euro was steady at $1.3536, holding back the dollar index (.DXY), which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, from a two-week high set overnight.
Gold nursed overnight losses, wallowing near a one-week low of $1,282.36 an ounce.

Commodities were generally mixed with some extending Thursday's solid gains, while others paused.
Copper put on 0.3 percent to $7,169.00 a tonne, adding to Thursday's 0.6 percent rise, while U.S. crude eased 0.2 percent to $102.76 a barrel, following a 1.4 percent rally.
Traders warned the U.S. fiscal crisis was very fluid and any setback in resolving it could see markets quickly turn tail.

"In the interim, fourth-quarter GDP will surely feel the adverse effects from the slowdown in economic activity and the lack of transparency with respect to economic data releases," said Bonnie Baha, senior portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital in Los Angeles.

"As a result, under the current set of circumstances, the prospect of a QE tapering is almost certainly off the table for 2013, she added, referring to the Federal Reserve's bond-buying stimulus program known as Quantitative Easing.

(Additional reporting by Jennifer Ablan in New York; Editing by John Mair and Simon Cameron-Moore)

Nifty Fut 11-Oct

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Stocks soar on hopes for deal to avoid US default

NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market broke out of a three-week funk Thursday as Washington moved closer to a deal to avert a U.S. government default.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 207 points, or 1.4 percent, to 15,004 after the first hour of trading.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 24 points, or 1.4 percent, to 1,680. The Nasdaq composite index added 62 points, or 1.7 percent, to 3,740.

The market has been sliding since mid-September as Washington's gridlock got investors worried that the U.S. could default on its debt and wreak havoc on financial markets. As of Wednesday the S&P 500 index had fallen 4 percent since reaching an all-time high of 1,725 on Sept. 18.

President Barack Obama will meet with top House Republicans at the White House in an effort to break a logjam that has left the government shuttered for more than a week.

House Republican leaders appear to be ready to advance a short-term increase in the government's borrowing authority that would prevent a default on U.S. government debt next week. Sources told The Associated Press in Washington that House Speaker John Boehner was trying to rally support for a six-week extension for the debt ceiling.

A potential compromise between the two political parties could not come soon enough.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew urged Congress to raise the government's borrowing limit before the current cap is reached on Oct. 17, warning that a Republican idea to prioritize payments with cash on hand could cause "irrevocable damage" to the U.S. economy.

On Wednesday, Fidelity Investments, the nation's largest money market fund manager, said it had sold all of its short-term U.S. government debt in an effort to limit money market investors' exposure to a potential default.

There were hopeful signs in the market for short-term U.S. government debt early Thursday. The yield on the one-month Treasury bill dropped to 0.17 percent from 0.27 late Wednesday.

The yield had spiked from near zero at the beginning of the month to as high as 0.35 percent Tuesday as investors dumped the bills out of concern that the government might not be able to pay them back when they're due. Investors demand higher yields when they perceive debt as being risky.

Among stocks making big moves:

— Teva Pharmaceuticals rose $4.40, or 3 percent, to $144.50 after the generic drug maker announced it was cutting its workforce by 10 percent.

— Ruby Tuesday plunged $1.38, or 18 percent, to $6.18. The restaurant chain reported a wider first quarter loss than expected, citing increased competition a difficult economic climate.

— Citrix Systems dropped $8.39, or 12 percent, to $58.28 after the company warned investors that its third-quarter revenue and profit will miss Wall Street's expectations.

__
Andrew Taylor in Washington, D.C. contributed to this report.

Live Nifty Fut 10-Oct

Nifty Fut CMP = 6051
it may blast above 6057-6060
we may see 6135 very soon

Live AxisBank 10-Oct

Axis Bank CMP = 1092
Resistance near 1094-1096 above this we may see 20 - 30 pts intraday move.
Positional Target = 1170

India's trade deficit dips to $6.76bn in Sept

India's exports grew 11.15 percent in September and imports declined 18.1 per cent amid a sharp fall in inward shipments of gold and silver, taking the trade deficit to the lowest level in 30 months.

Exports last month climbed to USD 27.68 billion, while imports stood at USD 34.4 billion, narrowing the trade gap to USD 6.76 billion.

"The trade deficit during the month was the lowest since March 2011. The main reason for decline in imports was a dip in imports of gold and oil," Commerce Secretary SR Rao told reporters here.

Imports of gold and silver plunged more than 80 per cent to USD 0.8 billion in September from USD 4.6 billion a year earlier. Oil imports declined by about 6 per cent to USD 13.19 billion.

During April-September, gold and silver imports rose 8.7 per cent to USD 23.1 billion.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18 , C Rangarajan, Chairman, PMEAC says: "It is very encouraging and it appears that the trade deficit is much lower and therefore we can see the further moderation in the CAD beyond what we had indicated earlier."

World Bank cuts China, East Asia growth forecasts

By Kevin Lim

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The World Bank lowered its 2013 and 2014 economic growth forecasts for China and most of developing East Asia on Monday, citing slower growth in the world's most populous nation as well as weaker commodity prices that have hurt exports and investments in countries such as Indonesia.

"Developing East Asia is expanding at a slower pace as China shifts from an export-oriented economy and focuses on domestic demand," the World Bank said in its latest East Asia Pacific Economic Update report.

"Growth in larger middle-income countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand is also softening in light of lower investment, lower global commodity prices and lower-than-expected growth of exports," it added.

The Washington-based development bank now expects developing East Asia to expand by 7.1 percent this year and by 7.2 percent in 2014, down from its April estimate of 7.8 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively.

CHINA LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT A CONCERN
On China, the World Bank said the massive, investment-heavy stimulus program supported by credit expansion had run its course, and policymakers must focus on containing the rapid growth of credit and tighten financial supervision.

It added local government debt was a concern, given the complexity and opacity of municipal finances, and said they should be reformed "with clear rules on borrowing, on allowed sources of borrowing, on debt resolution, and on the disclosure of comprehensive financial accounts by local governments".

"The rapid expansion of shadow banking poses serious challenges, since shadow banking is closely linked to the banking system, is less regulated, and operates with implicit guarantees from banks and local governments," the World Bank said.

But it added local governments in China had significant assets to meet liabilities as they held land reserves worth 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) as well as shares in state-owned enterprises worth a similar amount.

China had shown some progress in rebalancing its economy, it added, with consumption contributing more to quarterly growth than investment in the two years up to the first quarter of 2013 and services accounting for a larger share of GDP.

"Still, the economy has yet to make the decisive turn toward consumer-based growth," the World Bank said.

The World Bank now expects the Chinese economy to expand by 7.5 percent this year, down from its April forecast of 8.3 percent and below the International Monetary Fund's most recent forecast of 7.75 percent.

China's 2014 growth is estimated at 7.7 percent, the World Bank said, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous prediction.

The IMF is due to publish its new world economic outlook on Tuesday ahead of the fund's annual meeting.

INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES
Turning to Indonesia, the World Bank said investment growth reached a three-year low in the second quarter and is likely to face headwinds from interest rate hikes in response to rising inflation and capital outflows as well as from a slowdown in foreign direct investment and regulatory uncertainties.
"Lower global commodity prices have dampened export receipts and slowed private investment in the capital-intensive resource sectors of the Indonesian economy, depressing overall growth," the World Bank said.

The World Bank cut its growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.6 percent for 2013 and 5.3 percent next year, down from its previous estimates of 6.2 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively.

As for the Philippines, investments slowed in the second quarter after a strong first three months of the year. But remittances from Filipinos working abroad boosted consumption, which contributed three-fourths to growth in the April-June.

The World Bank expects the Philippines to grow by 7.0 percent this year, much faster than the April forecast of 6.2 percent. For 2014, the economy would probably expand by 6.7 percent, better than the previous estimate of 6.4 percent.

The World Bank said its latest regional forecasts faced greater likelihood of being revised downwards than upwards, citing potential headwinds such as a less orderly tapering of the U.S. Federal Reserve's stimulus program and a prolonged fiscal deadlock in Washington.

World Bank East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Bert Hofman added, however, that the reversal of capital flows in developing East Asia may be offset by Japan's new strategy to exit deflation and revive growth, commonly referred to as "Abenomics".

Japan's efforts to reflate its economy could spill over to emerging Asian economies through expanded bank lending, portfolio rebalancing, and increased outward foreign direct investment, he said.

(Editing by Kim Coghill)

AxisBank || Free Education Service

Nifty Fut 4-Oct-2013

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Great Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti

 

On this Special Day we Team Xpert Nifty are so honored to celebrate the Great Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.

We truly salute to his thoughts and vision which created a milestone in the History of the world.

We wish, hope and pray that every person in the world follow peace, happiness, joy

&

from today lets start creating a new world for batter life and batter future.

 

Aahinsha permo dharma.

NIfty Fut 1-Oct-2013

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